Friday, January 4, 2008 - Fear and Loathing in Iowa

New Vs. Old - Thinking Vs. Feeling - Mellifluous Change Vs. Substantive Change

These are all subjects that occupy my head as I write this postmortem on the Iowa Caucus. While I certainly respect Barack Obama as a candidate and the stance of the young and independent voters that voted him to victory, I still have trouble coalescing his message into any sort of substantive agenda, which terrifies me to no end.

America is dissatisfied. America is more dissatisfied than 1992, when Bill Clinton was swept into office thanks to the maverick and anti-establishment campaign of Ross Perot. While Perot siphoned off the independent minded voters who were disgruntled with the economy and overall clueless nature of the first Bush Administration, Bill Clinton stood as the candidate for change. The word change was drilled into our head. While "I feel your pain" became a national punchline, "I still believe in a place called Hope" and "don't stop, thinking about tomorrow" became the mantra for the 43% that voted Clinton into office. It didn't matter that Clinton was governor of a small state, with no real federal government experience. All we knew is that we needed change from 12 years of Republican domination of the White House. We were stagnant, and we latched onto a flawed candidate who promised to change Washington.

In the past few weeks to counteract the question of experience and ability to lead from day one, Obama has pretty much taken a page from Bill Clinton's playbook. Indeed, he has invoked Bill almost more than Hillary has. He has rightfully extolled the fact that Bill was not any more experienced that he is, and despite the scandals that sour people to this day, we all pretty much look fondly back on the 8 years of the Clintons. However, I think most forget just how rough the first year was for Bill Clinton. He was NOT ready to lead. After an initial victory with the Family and Medical Leave Act, he ran into terrible staffing issues in the Department of Justice. Lani Gunier was considered too radical to lead the Civil Rights Division, Zoe Baird and Kimba Wood were both withdrawn from consideration for Attorney General because they were not properly vetted. Then the big stumbles occurred. Inexplicably, Bill Clinton wasted a majority of his political capital on gays in the military. Then, on April 19, 1993, the destruction of the Branch Davidians in Waco, TX after a 51 day siege still leaves a bad taste in people's mouths, and also was the key ingredient behind Timothy McVeigh's anti-government attack on the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City.

Mario Cuomo once said that "We campaign in poetry, but we govern in prose." The first year of Bill Clinton's presidency is evidence of this. Bill Clinton, the greatest orator of our time, was able to sweep people up into the bosom of his poetry about the need for America to change, but he was not quite ready to take command of the beast of Washington, DC. Barack Obama is the same. I know people are fed up with government. I know people are afraid for our futures. I get it. However, I will not be fooled by silver tongued platitudes and raised expectations. To change Washington is to know Washington. You cannot ride in on January 20, 2009 and believe with the wave of your magic pen you will be able to change the fundamentals of a system that has a life of its own. Indeed, the president has very little power to change anything without the help of Congress.

After 8 years of listless leadership, where America has been set adrift, we need a leader who can govern from day one, who has the experience not only to play the Washington game but the fortitude to change it. For me, the only candidate that can successfully negotiate this is Hillary Clinton. She has had successes and failures in Washington. She knows how to build a coalition. Unfortunately, she does not have Bill or Obama's ability to convey hope through her speaking. She is hard edged and a policy wonk, which frankly, we need in 2008. I just wish that we would, for once, think, not feel our way through a campaign. We must make a cognitive choice as to who our next president will be, and we should not make a rash decision, valuing poetry over prose.