Onto the predictions! This was a tough call. Like I said, I have not followed the various awards that create the conventional wisdom as to who is going to win this year. So, this is a major shot in the dark. I made my choices, and then as I made the graphic below, I changed some of them again. Ah well, monkeys banging on a typewriter will actually make a word now and then (kinda like this blog).
The Biggies:
I've made predictions in all the categories, even though I wouldn't know a Short Film - Animated nominee if it smacked me in the face (hmmm...maybe my ex could be considered an animated short film...hmmm).
- Best Picture: I am going for a major upset here. While I know most people are picking No Country for Old Men to win, I think this might be a year where the truly dark pictures get knocked out by a sunny comedy. So, I am going with Juno. It would be an upset in the proportions of Shakespeare in Love beating out Saving Private Ryan.
- Best Actress: Marion Cotillard could pull an upset, but I think the old farts in the Academy aren't going to sit through a movie in French. And when the old farts have a fellow old fart to vote for, Julie Christie, who last won in 1964, then I don't think they can resist. Plus, it gives them all hope that they might have another chance before they're recognized in the "In Memorium" montage.
- Best Actor: No Brainer - Daniel Day Lewis.
- Best Supporting Actor: Almost another No Brainer - Javier Bardem, but I have this sort of gut feeling that Casey Affleck could pull an upset. I truly don't think it will happen, and I guessed as much on my ballot. I'll just take a little credit if it does.
- Best Supporting Actress: In the course of my guessing, I had three different choices: Amy Ryan, Tilda Swinton, and Ruby Dee. This is probably the most wide open category, and Cate Blanchett has a very real chance of winning, too. The only one that doesn't is the girl from Atonement, but considering she is staring in Peter Jackson's adaptation of The Lovely Bones, she'll probably be nominated next year. I'm going with Ruby Dee, again for the same reasons at Julie Christie. She's a living legend, and the Academy loves a "gold watch" win.
- Best Director: Julian Schnabel directed a movie where there lead was in a coma and could only communicate with eye blinks, and the man managed to write a memoir that was adapted into The Diving Bell and The Butterfly. For sheer audacity, I would say he would walk away with it. However, I think it come down to either The Coens or Paul Thomas Anderson, with The Coens eeking out the win.
- Best Original Screenplay - Everybody loves Diablo Cody, until the eventual backlash and/or sophmore slump. So, Juno...even though they are going to want to give Michael Clayton something, and it could pull the upset here.
- Best Adapted Screenplay - Rough category! Any one of these could win, but I think it will go to Ronald Harwood for The Diving Bell and The Butterfly.
2 comments:
Good predictions. But I think you're going to crash and burn on your Best Picture prediction.
Ah, I know, but sometimes dark is too dark. No Country and There Will be Blood are pitch black, and the fact remains that a lot of the Academy doesn't like that stuff. It was a surprise that The Departed won last year, and I think there was a big movement towards Little Miss Sunshine (though I hated it).
Juno could pull it out, but it will never stand the test of time, which will be the ultimate victory for the other 4.
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