Massacre at Mrytle Beach (second post)

First off, I would like to address my bad prediction about the Nevada Primary. On Friday, I posted that I had a gut feeling that John Edwards was going to do a lot better in Nevada than anyone else thought possible, and that he could likely win it all. I thought that because he had a relatively strong showing in the debate and the fact that people were starting to get intensely annoyed with the escalating bickering between the Clinton and Obama camps that maybe Edwards' pro-union stance would find some traction in a heavily unionized state. Obviously, I was dead wrong because he came in a distant 3rd with his lowest percentage of the year.

Maybe I was a week off...

I will not make an assertion that John Edwards will win South Carolina, but after the bloodletting between Obama and Clinton last night and his odd man out calm and eventual victory in the debate, Edwards stands to benefit a lot from the people who soured on the other two. I am a Hillary supporter, but she was pretty relentless on Obama, though it was Obama who smacked her with the Wal-Mart board comment first. It was just a very ugly debate, and I do not think either of them won any supporters from it. It has become ever more obvious that Hillary has given up on South Carolina (more on that in a minute), and Obama just came off as someone who was absolutely obsessed with Bill Clinton, which I think will reflect badly back on him. While Obama had every right to defend his record from attacks, lets face it, Bill Clinton has an 83% approval rating amongst Democrats, and Obama just isn't going to defeat him. It is that simple. This was Obama's worst debate, but with a veritable home court advantage, Obama is really not going to lose this primary.

It appears that Clinton has decided her time is better spent in the Super Duper Tuesday states, and she has left Bill and Chelsea to campaign for her in South Carolina. Of course, since Bill is frustrating Obama so much, this might actually be a good thing. Beyond that however, the Clinton camp has done a masterful job of lowering expectations. They have pretty much created a win/win situation for themselves. If by some miracle, Hillary Clinton wins on Saturday, it will be a very large nail in Obama's coffin. However, if she loses, she has made it pretty easy to say, "Of course Obama won, 60% of the Democratic voters were African-American, and we never really expected to win." In one fell swoop the trap will be sprung. He either gets a racially motivated win, or he becomes a loser candidate in one fell swoop. This is where Obama's lack of experience shows. He took the bait, and he will have to fight hard to counteract it.

Even if I felt like I needed a drink during all the bickering last night, god, I love this election cycle. This is fascinating stuff folks!